The normal intensity at Talladega is cranked up with four drivers eliminated from the Chase following the race on Sunday. [Credit: NASCAR Via Getty Images]
by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann
Buckle up race fans! The Contender Round of the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup comes to an end with the unpredictable lottery known as the Geico 500 at the Talladega Superspeedway Sunday afternoon.
GEICO 500 Talladega Superspeedway 500 miles (188 laps) Sunday, Oct. 19 2 pm ET ESPN, 1 pm ET
MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
At Talladega, every one of the 43 starters has a legitimate chance to win and at day’s end, the bottom four in the Chase point standings will be eliminated which has everyone on pins and needles. Currently the bottom four consists of three past champions, two of which were heavy title favorites when the Chase began, and the sport’s most popular driver.
In the past drivers have emerged from their cars literally shaking following a Talladega pressure cooker event and this time around the stakes are so much higher. When you throw in the post race tensions and animosity from last weekend, the pressure just about explodes as 10 of the 12 Chase drivers will be literally fighting for their Chase lives on Sunday.
As a side note to the post race brawls last week, it is hoped that one point is emphatically stressed in the driver’s meeting and maybe needs to be posted across the dashboards of all 43 starters…intentionally wrecking someone at these speeds is inherently dangerous. It is expected the NASCAR drivers will race all out while maintaining a level headed approach as the Contender Round of the 2014 Chase comes to an end.
The anticipation is great and no one knows what to expect Sunday at Talladega but here are some drivers to watch:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
(Dan Margetta): Junior Nation knows about the only way Dale Earnhardt Jr. continues in this Chase for the Sprint Cup is to win on Sunday and Talladega is just the right place to do it. While Dale Jr. hasn’t won here since 2004, he does own five Talladega victories and was the winner of the Daytona 500 to open this season. Listed as a 10-1 favorite this week, he seems to have a knack for restrictor plate racing and owns the third best driver rating at the Talladega speed plant. The Daytona 500 winning car is in a museum and Earnhardt Jr. finished 26th here in May, but historically Hendrick Motorsports has produced potent and fast superspeedway cars. Not since his father’s legendary 2000 Winston 500 run has this many eyes been on an Earnhardt performance at Talladega and should Dale Jr. step up and capture the checkered flag, the “Nation” might just tear down the grandstands. Of the four drivers on the bubble this week, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the best chance to score the must win.
Jimmie Johnson
(John Wiedemann): Who would have predicted that Jimmie Johnson would be fighting for his Championship life with at best a win and he stays in the Chase scenario? After finishes of 40th and 17th at mile and a half race tracks in the Contender Round, Johnson is at the back of the pack of Chasers with his teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr., 26 points behind the cutoff position. Johnson has two wins at Talladega and an average finish of 17.2 in 25 events at the track which is fifth best among the Chasers. Strategy will be one of the main keys in the race, right behind luck, and crew chief Chad Knaus is a master strategist. This race could come down more to the thinking on top of the pitbox rather than the moves made in the driver’s seat. If any team can overcome the predicament that they are in right now, my money would be on the 48 team to come through.
Brad Keselowski
DM: Many racing pundits had Brad Keselowski’s name etched on the Cup when the Chase began five weeks ago, but the 2012 Sprint Cup champion now finds himself in dire straits sitting tenth in the points with the only realistic way of advancing being to win on Sunday. He does have two Talladega victories to go with three top five finishes here and he’s listed at respectable 12-1 odds to pull off that win. Keselowski enters Talladega with few friends in his corner and in his current situation, the only way to keep his title hopes alive is to make more enemies. He was called on the carpet for his aggressive driving here back in May and it is going to take an aggressive stance again if he hopes to advance. He seems to be comfortable in the “Brad against the world” environment and he’s definitely going to be one to watch on Sunday.
Kasey Kahne
JW: Kasey Kahne may spend the entire race with his eyes on his rearview mirror at Talladega, something that is pretty much done anyways. Sitting in the final cutoff spot to move forward to the Eliminator Round, Kahne is just a point ahead of Matt Kenseth. Looking forward in the standings, Kahne is sixteen points behind 7th place Denny Hamlin. While the stats show that Kahne’s best finish at Talladega was second (twice), average finish is 21.5 and his driver rating is ranked down in 29th – stats don’t mean too much this weekend. With the Chase cutoff, tempers from last weekend’s “cool down” lap and the unpredictability of Talladega, this race will be probably the most interesting race to watch all year so far. We will be watching Kasey, and Kasey will be watching Kenseth and the rest of the Chasers.
Matt Kenseth
DM: Another driver listed at 12-1 odds this week is Matt Kenseth who also enters Talladega on the outside looking in, sitting ninth in points just one point and track position short of making the cut. Kenseth is a pretty savvy restrictor plate racer though, with one Talladega victory and five top-five finishes to go along with the second best driver rating. The Gibbs Toyota’s have been pretty stout on the superspeedways this season and Kenseth has been competitive in the plate races. Of the four drivers currently outside the top eight, Kenseth has the best chance of moving on without a victory as he basically needs to finish two spots ahead of Kasey Kahne and 18 and 25 positions ahead of Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson/Dale Earnhardt Jr. respectively. Kenseth is smart enough not to cause the “big one” but he also needs to be aware of his surroundings and not get caught up in someone else’s mistake. It’s much easier said than done at Talladega though and it does nothing to relieve the pressure heading into Sunday’s race. Expect Matt Kenseth and the #20 team to run their race and see where the chips fall at the checkered flag.
Kevin Harvick
JW: My pick to win this race is Kevin Harvick. He doesn’t need to win this race, Harvick could even park his car on the opening lap, sit back and watch because he is set in the Eliminator Round. Maybe you didn’t know this because most media outlets focused on the fights after the race, but Kevin Harvick won at Charlotte. Without the pressure of needing a good finish or even win to move forward, harvick just might slide to the front and take the victory. As stated before, the Stewart-Haas cars have been rocket-ships all year long and that is a good thing at Talladega. It will be interesting to see the strategy that the #4 team employs on Sunday but Harvick is a racer and he will charge to the front with nothing to lose, perhaps even taking the win.
Kyle Busch
DM: Would you believe it if I told you the Joe Gibbs drivers were involved in on-track fireworks and fights in the garage last week and Kyle Busch was nowhere near the action? What if I told you the fiery and sometimes wild Kyle Busch is a strong championship favorite halfway through the 2014 Chase? Believe it or not, Kyle Busch is in a good position to win his first Sprint Cup, currently sitting second in the points heading into the Talladega elimination race. He’s not totally safe but barring an early accident, he should transfer to the next round. He’s listed at high 20-1 odds to win this week and he has one Talladega victory to go along with four top five finishes. As tumultuous as the season has seemed to be for Busch and the #18 team, as we enter the crunch time in the Chase, they are poised to make a serious run for the championship. If Busch can continue to eliminate the drama, which is hard to do at the intense Talladega track, this team could very well creep into the championship discussion as we enter the final cut-off round of the Chase.
Kyle Larson/Jamie McMurray
JW: Week in and week out during the Chase, Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray have raced at the front and outperformed a number of the Chase drivers. Larson has done well, considering that he is a rookie, and has proved that he deserves to run at the front. A nineth place finisher in his only Cup race at Talladega earlier this year, Larson should be once again considered a contender for the win this weekend. McMurray won this race last year and could be a spoiler of the Chase drivers scenarios as a contender to win on Sunday. Talking about the Chasers, McMurray said: ” “They’re kind of having their own little race, and Kyle and I are just going out every week and trying to win.” Expect both drivers to be in the mix at the end of 500 miles at Talladega.
Greg Biffle
DM: If you want to consider a non-Chase contender to win the Talladega race, look no further than Greg Biffle who led the most laps here in May and finished a strong second. Biffle is listed at 25-1 odds this week and since being eliminated in the first round of the Chase has been looking for something positive to motivate this team as the season winds down. Biffle has had a lot of success in plate races and the Roush Fords have been pretty stout on the superspeedways as well. Already eliminated from the Chase, points don’t matter much to Biffle and that leaves him free to race for the win without the pressure of the championship weighing the team down. With not a lot to lose and a whole lot to gain this weekend, look for Greg Biffle to contend for his first victory of the season.
Ryan Newman
JW: Another driver that doesn’t have magical stats at Talladega is Ryan Newman. But, Newman has quietly been in the mix in each of the Chase races and has positioned himself to move forward to the Eliminator round. Newman has finishes of 9th in the last two fall Talladega events and if he comes close to matching that result on Sunday, he will move on to the Elite Eight of the Eliminator Round. Currently fourth in the standings, Newman is 21 points ahead of ninth and just five points behind Kyle Busch, the top driver to transfer to the next round based on points. Newman’s consistency has worked well in the new Chase format so far with an average finish of 10.8 in the five races so far. 21 points is not a lot at Talladega, but I expect Newman to finish well and move on the the next round.