2015 Class photo at Le Mans. [photo by Porsche Motorsport]
Regardless if you are a Porsche, Audi, Toyota or Nissan fan, there is one sure overall winner at the 2015 running of the 24 Hours of Le Mans, and that is Michelin. Michelin tires will be on every one of the P1 class entries.
Perhaps the better question is who is in the best position to use those Michelin tires to their best advantage and take the overall victory?
Porsche promises to be fast, and likely the fastest, of the P1 Hybrid cars when they take to the track for practice and qualifying on Wednesday at Le Mans. No doubt, as long as the weather stays dry, we will see the existing track record fall and not by a small margin. Porsche is coming to Le Mans with everything in place that they need to win, and if they can sustain reliability similar to Audi, they have a good shot. If the Porsche has a weakness, it is perhaps it is not as balanced as the Audi. At the first two races of the season, it looked at bit “twitchy”. Perhaps that is why Mark Webber looks so comfortable driving the Porsche – he is used to F1 cars. At Le Mans, three drivers have to work in unison for 24 hours to keep the car on the track and out of the pits, and a car that is unforgiving can easily bite you if you are not careful.
Although it is unlikely that they will finish the race, the new Nissan GT-R Nismo Hybrid is likely to show astounding speed on the Mulsanne. Nissan is coming to Le Mans armed with three of their unusual, front engine prototypes. They are interesting, they are quick, but they will likely not make it to the finish.
Toyota, which was a bit off the pace at the Le Mans test session at the end of May, will surely find the speed they need to run up front during qualifying, and likely stay in contact with the leaders in the early stages of the race. However, as in the past, mechanical gremlins will likely put them off the pace. That, plus the fact that Toyota has only 2 cars versus 3 for their competitors, starts them off at a one car deficit.
Audi, with their all new for 2015 R18 e-tron quattro, is not concerned about qualifying for Le Mans, and they are spending all their time and effort on race set up. The Audis will be fast, but likely not as fast as the Porsches. Audi’s R18 is almost an entirely different car from last year’s version, and they have paid a lot of attention to aerodynamics and balance.
If we were to speculate on the grid for Le Mans at this point, prior to any cars turning a lap in practice or qualifying, we think the starting lineup will look something like this: Porsche-Porsche-Audi-Porsche-Audi-Toyota-Audi-Toyota-Nissan-Nissan-Nissan. That is pure speculation at this point, but based on what the teams have shown so far in the Le Mans test session and at the first two FIA-WEC races this season, those positions will not be too far off.
The race itself, however, is another story entirely. In the race, we think that the work that Audi has done in the off season on their aerodynamic package and balance of the car will pay huge dividends. The Audis will be in the best position to take advantage of their Michelin tires and will surely make fewer pit stops for tires throughout the 24 hours than the other teams. Couple that with Audi Sport Team Joest’s unequalled experience in winning at Le Mans (both crew and drivers), and you likely have the winning combination. If it rains, which it seems to do at least once every year, the Audi will likely have an even larger advantage due to their balance.
That total package is what has Audi coming into Le Mans having won the first two FIA-WEC races of the season – at Silverstone and Spa. They won not by having the fastest car, but by having the most drivable car and matching that performance with race strategy that left the other teams in the dust.
So what is our prediction for Le Mans in 2015? Besides the fact that Michelin will be on the winning car, we think that Audi will once again have the package that will be needed to assure the overall victory – team, car, drivers, performance, strategy and the balance needed to win the race with consistent laps, outstanding tire wear and reliable cars. Don’t bet against Audi this year.
Of course, the race is still to run and anything can happen, and usually does. Le Mans is a classic and the most famous motor race in the world for a reason – it is the ultimate test of man and machine.
May the best team win.
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