Kyle Busch leads the way to his first victory of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season at Sonoma Raceway. [credit Robert Laberge/Getty Images]
Just a week ago, doom and gloom NASCAR pundits said it was all over for Kyle Busch. The driver, who is making a comeback from injuries suffered in a devastating crash in the opening race of the Xfinity Series race at Daytona had just finished last at Michigan Speedway.
It’s over, many said, for the driver that missed the first eleven races of the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season. But, with an exemption from NASCAR along with the caveat that Busch needed to qualify for the Chase like the other drivers – there has always been a chance for Busch to find a spot in the Chase. After missing that many races, the only probable way was to get a victory and be in the top 30 in the point standings.
Four races into Busch’s abbreviated season, the chances didn’t look very good. Busch finished 11th at Charlotte Motor Speedway and 9th at Pocono, but there was a finish of 36th at Dover and that Michigan finish.
Everything changed this weekend, for both Busch and the NASCAR pundits. A great drive on a track they (NASCAR pundits) said would be difficult for him to compete at resulted in a victory for Busch. Check one accomplishment and Chase qualification off the list. The victory and points awarded left Busch in 37th place in the standings, 136 points behind 30th place Cole Whitt.
Can he make the Chase? Yes he can!
Looking at the final ten races of the season, Busch has averaged a 13th place finish overall at those events in the last five years combined. In those 49 races Busch has won four times and has 15 top five and 25 top ten finishes.
On the other end of the spectrum, Whitt has averaged a 27th place finish this season. Quick math will tell you that those averages favor Busch to pass Whitt in ten races.
It is not just Whitt that Busch will be looking to pass, the other drivers in the way are Matt DiBenedetto, Josh Wise, Michael Annett, Alex Bowman, Brett Mofitt and Justin Allgaier who is just a point behind Whitt. Whitt and Allgaier are Busch’s targets, the other drivers have less than a hundred points more than Busch.
The one thing that Busch will need to be concerned about is 16 other drivers having won a race this season. So far, ten other drivers that are much higher in the point standings have won a race. If six others win and are ahead of Busch in the points, he will be out. With drivers like Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson, Greg Biffle and AJ Allmendinger yet to win this year, that could be a problem – unless Busch wins again.
So, is it impossible for Busch to make the Chase? Far from it. Is it improbable? Far from it. Will it be fun to watch? Definitely!