The green flag waves for the Kobalt Tools 400 at Las Vegas in 2013. [Photo credit Getty Images]
by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series rolls the dice this weekend in Sin City as the Las Vegas Motor Speedway hosts the Kobalt Tools 400 Sunday afternoon.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series KOBALT 400 Las Vegas Motor Speedway 400.5 Miles (267 laps) Sunday, March 9 3pm (ET) FOX, 2:30 p.m. (ET) PRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90 Las Vegas is the first 1.5 mile circuit the tour will visit in 2014 and its configuration mimics a majority of the tracks on the schedule. Historically, the teams that perform well on the 1.5 mile tracks wind up contending for the championship at season’s end.
For 2014, new ride height rules implemented last week at Phoenix left a few teams slightly behind and the test day scheduled for Thursday in Las Vegas will provide valuable track time for them to catch up. Las Vegas loves winners and here are a few odds-on favorites to be contenders Sunday afternoon.
Matt Kenseth
Dan Margetta: Matt Kenseth and the #20 team were the kings of the 1.5 mile tracks in 2013 as they parlayed their Vegas triumph into six more wins, including three on the mile and a halves. Kenseth, who has three total Vegas victories and six top five finishes has made the Las Vegas Motor Speedway a personal favorite with several strong races. Coming off back to back top ten finishes to kick off 2014, Kenseth should be a strong bet to find victory lane in the Kobalt Tools 400.
Kevin Harvick
John Wiedemann: Last weeks winner at Phoenix should be strong again this weekend. After testing the Gen-6 car at Charlotte, Harvick showed that the team was ready for the new package. The results at Phoenix are a start to seeing how the teams deal with the rules package and the race this weekend will be another step in the process. With what we have seen so far, Harvick’s switch to Stewart-Haas Racing has not caused him to slow down at all and may just be a step forward for him. Improving his average finish of 12.7 at Las Vegas is probably in the cards for Harvick this weekend.
Brad Keselowski
DM: The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup champion looks to be back in form in 2014, scoring top three results in the opening two races at Daytona and Phoenix. While Keselowski has failed to win at Las Vegas to date, he finished a strong third here a year ago and towards the end of last season, the #2 team picked up their 1.5 mile track performances, scoring the win at Charlotte in October. The team brings another brand new chassis to Vegas this weekend and the Penske Fords have been strong so far. Keselowski may not be listed amongst the expected favorites, but this team could provide plenty of action if you’re looking to hedge your bets.
Kurt Busch
JW: Returning to his hometown is probably a good thing for Kurt Busch after losing his engine last weekend at Phoenix. Since then Busch has announced that he will attempt to be running in the Indianapolis 500 this year along with completing the double at Charlotte later that day. In the meantime, Kurt returns to NASCAR racing this weekend at a track looking for a quick turn-around to an uninspiring start to the season. Kurt has run strong but the finishes haven’t been there. The same can be said for many of his races at Las Vegas. But in Vegas, luck can change quickly and the Stewart-Haas team could be in for a big day.
Carl Edwards
DM: Carl Edwards has won twice in Las Vegas and also owns four career top five finishes. Vegas is a track that suits Carl Edwards’ style and he’s another driver that traditionally runs well here. The Roush-Fenway Fords have shown significant improvement in the speed department in 2014 and crew chief Jimmy Fennig can be a cool collected gambler if needed when it comes to pit strategy. This team just seems due and Las Vegas is perfect place to be when their looking to change their luck.
Jimmie Johnson
JW: With a series high four victories at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Jimmie Johnson could be ready to seal his spot in the Chase this weekend with win number five. Not that anyone thinks he won’t make the Chase. The big thing to watch for is to see if the #48 team is comfortable with the Gen-6 rules package. Johnson commented after the Phoenix race that the team is not quite there yet as far as setups. When they do get “there”, look out. Many teams would love to be running as “poorly” as Johnson is right now. We’ll see if this is the breakout weekend for the #48.
Kyle Busch
DM: “Rowdy” Busch comes home to a partisan crowd this weekend as the Las Vegas native races in front of many friends and family in the Kobalt Tools 400. Kyle Busch and the #18 team have raced up front so far this season but they have haven’t led as many laps as they have been used to. Busch does have one Las Vegas victory to his credit to go along with four top five results. If there is such a thing as “home field advantage” in NASCAR, Kyle Busch should enjoy it this weekend as there will be added incentive to win in front of the hometown crowd.
Ryan Newman
JW: Running pretty quiet but solid, Ryan Newman wouldn’t be a complete surprise to make a splash this weekend. The Richard Childress Racing driver seems to be comfortable in the new ride with the new rules package and was making strides towards the end of the Phoenix race. Watch the test results on Thursday and practice times to see if this team unloads strong this weekend. If they do, Newman will be a good pick at Las Vegas.
Tony Stewart
DM: While Tony Stewart has returned to the seat of the #14 Chevy following his leg injury last summer, he has yet to perform to the level he was at prior to the setback. Las Vegas could be the place for Stewart to turn his fortunes around as he owns the third best driver rating at the track. He also has one victory and a total of six top five finishes in his career here. He’s also been testy lately with the media which could signal an increased focus on getting faster without dealing with distractions. Stewart came to Vegas in similar circumstances in 2012, looking to improve performance and he walked away with a dominating win. Don’t put it past him to do it again.
Kyle Larson
JW: Reportedly, Kyle Larson was really strong in the test sessions at Charlotte for determining the rules package for the Gen-6 car. In each of the sessions Larson ran at the front of the pack. Looking at his results at Phoenix can be deceiving but the young driver fell back during pitstops and cautions only to make up ground under green flag conditions. I predict that Larson is going to get at least one win this year and it could happen this weekend at Las Vegas.
Jamie McMurray
DM: We can’t talk about Las Vegas without picking a long-shot and my long-shot pick this week is Jamie McMurray. The Ganassi cars are bearing the fruits of their Hendrick engine deal as both McMurray and teammate Kyle Larson are showing up near the top of the speed charts this season. McMurray has run well on 1.5 mile tracks in the past including a win at Charlotte in 2010 and he should be good enough this weekend to have a chance as the race winds down. In Vegas, all you need is a chance and McMurray could surprise people this weekend.