The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for some beatin’ and bangin’ style short track racing with the Irwin Tools Night Race on Saturday night. Once the toughest ticket on the circuit, the Bristol night race almost always featured worn out race cars and overheated tempers until progressive banking was added in 2007. The change opened up a second groove on the .533 mile track and the bump and run Bristol style racing disappeared while the disgruntled fans howled. The progressive banking was removed following the Cup race last spring, supposedly returning Bristol to its aggressive one-groove status. That means any driver perceived to be a nice guy can be crossed off the list of favorites as the likely winner cannot be afraid to use the front bumper to get to victory lane.
While fans are expecting the beatin’ and bangin’ to return, drivers are unsure on what to expect as they return to a new Bristol. Some are under the assumption that the milling process on the track back in April that eliminated some of the banking on the upper groove also eliminated any side by side racing and that the bump and run will be the only way to pass the driver in front of you.
Saturday night will answer a lot of questions, including the most important one – Who will be happy at the end of the night? Probably only one driver and hopefully the fans.
Favorites:
Kyle Busch
Dan Margetta: The most aggressive, refuse to lose, driver on the circuit should be right at home at the tough Bristol high banks and he boasts the best driver ranking of all competitors. Having a win and a likely Chase spot taken away from him on the final lap two weeks ago still burns and should fuel the passion to get the job done Saturday night at Bristol. If Busch can keep his temper in check, he should be in contention for the win. But the added intensity and pressure that goes with needing a win badly to make the Chase put on top of a narrow, fast, close quarters, racetrack that naturally ratchets up emotions could push the pressure cooker inside the #18 car to its boiling point.
John Wiedemann: The winner of the five of the last ten races at Bristol including the spring race last season, Kyle Busch has benefitted the most during the previous configuration of the track. When change comes to NASCAR, Busch is one of the drivers that adapt quickly. Add that to the fact that Busch loves running on a track like Bristol and you can add another win to Busch’s total when he finds victory lane Saturday night. That’s where I expect him to be.
Brad Keselowski
JW: Another driver that adapts quickly and doesn’t let history slow him down is Brad Keselowski. Although, he does have history on his side when it comes to Bristol Motor Speedway. The #2 is a car that you expect to see at the front when you come to Bristol, whether it is Rusty Wallace, Kurt Busch or Keselowski driving. I expect a Brad Keselowski/Kyle Busch battle for the win as the laps close down. Thinking about that now, it might be good to be the third place driver as the laps count down.
DM: NASCAR’s newest superstar isn’t afraid to speak his mind and has had to fight fiercely for everything he’s accomplished so far. That style fits well at Bristol where Keselowski has won the last two races held here. If he can avoid the inevitable paybacks his driving style and possibly his mouth off the track are sure to attract, there’s no reason the Blue Deuce can’t find victory lane for the third time in a row.
Matt Kenseth
DM: Wait a minute I thought we said nice guys can’t win here. So why is Kenseth on this list? Kenseth is one of the rare aggressively smart drivers on the tour that won’t lay a bumper to you on purpose but at the same time is not afraid to put you in the cheap seats if he has to just ask Jeff Gordon about the spring race here in 2006. Kenseth has run extremely well at Bristol no matter what the configuration and has the second best driver ranking among the competitors. Besides, Bristol is just a bigger version of Slinger Speedway in his home state of Wisconsin where he has had tremendous success.
JW: Not always thought of as a short-track racer in the NASCAR circuit, that is where Kenseth grew up and learned to race. Kenseth has two wins at Bristol, in the 2005 and 2006 fall races, and could add to that total as the track configuration returns to the way it was when he found victory lane. Another driver solidly in the Chase, all that matters is racking up wins and bonus points for the Chase. Not a bad position to be in when it comes to Bristol.
Carl Edwards
DM: Edwards ran well last week at Michigan but failed to close the deal and missed a much needed victory which still leaves him left out of the Chase dance. He has two wins at Bristol and is plenty capable of driving to the front here. However this team hasn’t had much luck this season and having a cloud like that over their heads isn’t a desirable situation at a place like Bristol where things happen quickly and a driver can get swept up in someone else’s mess rather easily.
Clint Bowyer
JW: Clint Bowyer continues to run strong in his first season with Michael Waltrip Racing. Finishing fourth in the spring race at Bristol and on a three race top 10 finish streak puts Bowyer on the list this week. Bowyer is a great hard-nosed short track racer and fits the profile of a driver to watch this weekend. He will be in the mix.
Tony Stewart
DM: Stewart has one win at Bristol and there’s no question that he has the toughness to survive 500 laps here. There are some questions as to whether there will be a shake-up amongst the crew members on this team and the #39 team car of Ryan Newman which would normally be a detriment, but last season a similar occurrence ignited five wins in the final ten races and a championship.
Kasey Kahne
JW: While it started off slow, Kahne’s first season driving for Hendrick Motorsports has been finishing strong. Kahne is pretty safe in the wild-card position to make the 2012 Chase and another win would make him a lock. The entire Hendrick team has been fast this year and only derailed by mechanical issues. As long as the engine issues Hendrick teams faced last week don’t crop up, Kahne should be fine and a good pick at Bristol.
Kevin Harvick
DM: Despite holding down a position in the top ten in points and a spot in the Chase, Harvick has gone winless to date this season. Gil Martin returns as crew chief this week, replacing Shane Wilson, who actually replaced Martin at the end of last season. While Martin and Harvick won many races together and even challenged for the championship in 2010, it apparently wasn’t good enough for the driver and the change to Wilson was made heading into this season. Now that Gil Martin and Kevin Harvick are back together, if there are no lingering differences, this team could start to make a statement as we head into the Chase.
JW: A season with no wins and only three top five finishes at this point is not what Kevin Harvick or Richard Childress expected coming into the 2012 campaign. What the crew chief switch back to Gil Martin will mean is yet to be seen, but it can’t hurt. Martin has been involved with the team over the last couple races but that still hasn’t changed the results. Harvick still has a pretty good cushion to prevent him from dropping out of the top ten by the time the Chase rolls around but it is not insurmountable. Prior to the track change in 2007, Harvick had some pretty good stats including a win in 2005. A return to that form would be a huge boost heading to the Chase.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DM: Earnhardt has a win at Bristol that came in the night race back in 2004 and if Bristol has indeed returned to its old-school one groove style, Earnhardt should thrive as he runs best when there is no finesse needed to get to the front. He showed last week that he’s not afraid to mix it up with anyone, including his teammates and if he can avoid costly mistakes such as running into someone unnecessarily on the track or speeding on pit road, we could see a wildly popular Earnhardt victory party at the end of 500 laps.
JW: While he is not ticking off teammates, Junior is continuing to pad his top 5 and top 10 totals. While he doesn’t have any top 10’s in recent runs at Bristol and doesn’t particularly like one groove racetracks, look for a solid top ten on Saturday night.
Long Shot Pick:
DM: Kurt Busch really enjoys Bristol as evidenced by his five wins here. The track is a great equalizer when it comes to equipment and if James Finch and the Phoenix Racing crew can provide Kurt with a reliable car, the #51 team has a legitimate shot at pulling off the victory. The Vegas odds makers tabbed Busch as a 40-1 shot to win and if the driver can keep his emotions in check, there is plenty of talent behind the wheel to contend for the win.
JW: While Dan wants me to pick Danica Patrick – well, I’m not going to do that. I’m looking at Michael Waltrip Racing. In the spring race MWR completed the top five with Martin Truex Jr. in 3rd, Clint Bowyer 4th, and Brian Vickers 5th. Vickers led 125 laps in that race as well. Truex Jr. now has finishes of second and third in his last two starts at Bristol and while he is not as much of a long-shot as Patrick, he is my pick.
Wild Card Watch
by John Wiedemann
Following Michigan the Wild Card standings are: They are in (for now): Kasey Kahne, 2 wins, 694 points
Ryan Newman, 1 win, 680 pts
Need points but a win would put them in: Kyle Busch, 1 win, 669 pts Jeff Gordon, 1 win, 650 pts Marcos Ambrose, 1 win, 639 pts
Joey Logano, 1 win, 600 pts
Need a win plus: Carl Edwards, 0 wins, 689 pts Paul Menard, 0 wins, 665 pts Jamie McMurray, 0 wins, 571 pts
Jeff Burton, 0 wins, 566 pts
There were no big changes in the standings following the race at Michigan with the exception of Jeff Gordon falling even further out of the points race for the final wild card spot when his engine let go. Ryan Newman, with his eighth place finish, increased his lead over Kyle Busch by five points to eleven for the final wild card spot. A great run and fifth place finish at Michigan helped Marcos Ambrose gain some points but he is still too far back and needs another win to get into the Chase.
Obviously a win by Busch, Gordon, Ambrose or Logano would vault them over Newman for the final wild card. A win by Edwards would put him in the final spot over Newman as Carl has been able to continue to add points even without finding that elusive win.
Three valuable wins are left and, mathematically, everyone in the top 20 still has a shot at making the Chase, but time is running out and it is to the point that only wins get you in.
Dan Margetta and John WiedemannNASCAR