The opening lap of the 2015 Daytona 500. [Russ Lake Photo]
by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann
It’s finally here! The 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season kicks off with the biggest race of the year as the 58th running of the Daytona 500 takes the green flag Sunday afternoon at Daytona International Speedway.
Most of the major changes during the off season occurred away from the track as NASCAR implemented a new charter team ownership system and tweaked its overtime rules. Every team in the garage is optimistic as the season begins and they should be as lately the winner of the Daytona 500 has been nearly impossible to predict. Every driver in the field has a legitimate shot to win and here are a few to watch…
Matt Kenseth (Dan Margetta)
After qualifying on the outside of the front row, Matt Kenseth seems poised to capture his third Daytona 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have raced well in the restrictor plate races and now the team seems to have found the single car speed to go with that. Plus Matt Kenseth has proved to be a savvy plate racer which requires smarts, patience, and the ability to anticipate moves around him. Barring any uncontrollable bad luck or getting caught up in a big crash, I think Matt Kenseth at 10-1 odds is a solid pick to win the 500 on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (John Wiedemann)
Denny Hamlin kicked off the racing season with a victory in the non-points Sprint Unlimited, the third of his career, where he led half of the race. Hamlin qualified 11th in the number 11 and will be competing in the first Can-Am Duel on Thursday night to determine his starting spot for the Daytona 500. Hamlin and Toyota have yet to win a Daytona 500 with his best finish in the race being second place in 2014. In the last four races at Daytona, Hamlin has not finished worse than sixth. This could be Denny’s year.
Chase Elliott (DM)
The heir to Jeff Gordon’s #24 throne certainly turned a lot of heads when he captured the pole position in his first Daytona 500 attempt. Now all eyes will be on how this rookie runs in the actual race. I think he will be a factor in Sunday simply because he doesn’t seem to be phased by high pressure situations. I saw him conquer Darlington in his first attempt in person and I strongly believe he will be alright on Sunday. He is listed at 25-1 odds and if he can maintain a solid race he had as good a chance as anybody to wind up in victory lane.
Jimmie Johnson (JW)
Jimmie Johnson has two victories in the Daytona 500 (2006 & 2013) and has a streak of three consecutive top five finishes in the event. Johnson hasn’t had the season finishes he would have liked recently but he has been starting the season very well. I expect the same again this year. Johnson qualified sixth and has been solid in all of the practices so far. Anything can happen at Daytona, as it did for Johnson on the first lap in 2012), but Johnson has the veteran experience to not put himself in a bad position. Jimmie is a great bet on Sunday.
Kurt Busch (DM)
Kurt Busch returns to the Daytona 500 after missing the event last year. Busch is an outstanding plate racer and keep in mind he is the best plate track driver yet to score a victory as he has had multiple runner-up results. In other words, he’s pushed lots of guys to victory and if he can reverse that situation and get a push himself for a change, he can finally achieve that elusive plate track victory in the biggest race of the year.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (JW)
You can not talk about Daytona or Talladega’s restrictor plate racing without mentioning Dale Earnhardt Jr. But can you pick against him? If you are in a fantasy league, you can expect about 70% of the players to pick Junior, should you take a chance and go with someone else? If you are betting, the odds are probably not going to be very high. But if you are just picking a straight up winner in this race, it probably is going to be Earnhardt. Dale has four wins at Daytona with two of them occurring in the 500, most recently in 2014. Junior also led 98 of 161 laps on his way to winning the last series race at Daytona back in July last season. No matter what, Junior will be in front of the pack on Sunday, the question is will it be the last lap.
Ryan Blaney (DM)
This could be the year of the rookies at Daytona as Ryan Blaney begins his first full Sprint Cup season behind the wheel of the famed Wood Brothers #21 Ford. Blaney has been fast all Speedweeks and at 40-1 odds presents an intriguing long shot pick. The last time the Wood Brothers had a hot rookie piloting their cars, they pulled off an upset Daytona 500 win with Trevor Bayne. Now, five years later, they look to be in position to do it again.
Brian Vickers (JW)
Jumping into a ride with a new team isn’t the easiest thing to do. Doing after not racing since March of last year doesn’t make it any easier. Brian Vickers returns to Sprint Cup Series racing, hoping into the #14 Chevrolet to fill in for Tony Stewart who was injured in an off-roading accident. Vickers will have a great ride in the Daytona 500. Even though the #14 hasn’t performed well the last couple of seasons, the Stewart-Haas team is one of the best in the business and normally brings a big bucket of speed to the track. I’m not sure how many races Vickers will get in Stewart’s car but this weekend will be a great way to show teams that he still has what it takes to compete. I’ll be rooting for Vickers this weekend.