The normal intensity of a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race gets cranked up at Talladega Superspeedway. [Credit: NASCAR Via Getty Images]
by Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann
It’s back to the high speeds and unpredictability of restrictor plate racing for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series as the Talladega Superspeedway hosts the Geico 500 Sunday afternoon.
GEICO 500 Talladega Superspeedway 500.08 miles (188 laps) Sunday, May 3 1pm ET FOX, 12:30pm ET
MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
For the first time since the season opening Daytona 500, the Sprint Cup teams bring out their superspeedway cars where aerodynamics is a key component to racing strong and Talladega is the biggest track on the tour so speed is king as well.
As far as predicting a winner, it’s similar to winning the lottery as every driver in the field has a legitimate shot at the victory but here are some to watch Sunday afternoon in the Geico 500…
Jeff Gordon (Dan Margetta)
Jeff Gordon was the pole sitter for the Daytona 500 and led a race high 87 laps back in February. That performance should transfer over to Talladega this Sunday where Gordon and his Hendrick Motorsports #24 team enter the event confident they have one of the cars to beat. Jeff Gordon has six victories at Talladega and enters this weekend’s race at 15-1 odds to win. So far this season, Gordon’s “Farewell Tour” has produced more bad luck than victories but Sunday’s Geico 500 does present a promising opportunity to score win number one on the season for the four time champion.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (John Wiedemann)
You cannot talk about a restrictor plate race and not mention Dale Earnhardt Jr. In seven races starting at the fall race of 2001 to the spring race of 2004 Earnhardt Jr won five times including the first four of those in a row. Since then Junior has a best finish of 2nd twice and had six top ten finishes, in 20 races. Either Earnhardt is due for a win or the Talladega magic has worn off. The reality is that Talladega is a tough place to win at and four in a row had not been done before or since. Only Jeff Gordon (2007) has been a repeat winner since. Can Earnhardt return to glory at Talladega? Well, it’s Junior – you gotta pick him.
Greg Biffle (DM)
Despite weak performances in most races so far this year, Greg Biffle and his Roush-Fenway #16 team have to be looking forward to returning to Talladega as the restrictor plate racing style here is the great equalizer among the field. Biffle led the most laps in this race a year ago and finished a close second. He comes into Talladega this year at 25-1 odds to win and the plate tracks are about the only places the Roush-Fenway cars do not seem to struggle. Biffle is a veteran and he knows this may be his best opportunity to date this season to find victory lane so look for him to be near the front.
Jimmie Johnson (JW)
Jimmie Johnson has wins at Talladega in 2006 and 2011, both being spring races. With two wins this season, Johnson sits at the top with Kevin Harvick and should consider himself a lock for the Chase. Johnson has spent a lot of time this season playing catch up in races, including the Daytona 500 where he started second, dropped into the low thirties mid race and then battled back to a fifth place finish when the checkers flew. Johnson will be a factor on Sunday and as long as he doesn’t get caught up in a big wreck, he will be challenging for the win.
Brad Keselowski (DM)
Brad Keselowski seems to be hit or miss at Talladega, either finishing poorly for charging late for the win just as he did the last time the series visited the Alabama speed plant. Keselowski drives one of the potent Penske Fords so he should be plenty fast this weekend and his three career Talladega victories have him coming in at 12-1 odds. With a win already this season at California, Keselowski can afford to just go for the win this weekend which could net him his fourth Talladega victory, or it could bite him if he’s too aggressive too early. He ran strong in the Daytona 500 before engine issues sidelined his day and if he is around at the end on Sunday, he will be hard to deny for the victory.
Jamie McMurray (JW)
Jamie McMurray is going to win a race this season and Talladega just might be the track to do it at. McMurray has two wins at Talladega(2009 and 2013) and has had much success on restrictor plate tracks. The entire Ganassi racing team has made great strides after a number of down years. With both McMurray and teammate Kyle Larson running up front in races, wins are going to come for the team, it’s just a matter of when. McMurray has had a flair for the dramatic in the past winning big races. At this point there is no bigger race than the next one on the schedule. Watch the #1 car this weekend, he just might be at the front of the pack.
David Ragan (DM)
David Ragan has his last ride in the #18 car subbing for Kyle Busch before moving to Michael Waltrip Racing’s #55 ride beginning next week. With his only two career Sprint Cup victories coming in restrictor plate races, including his last one here in a severely underfunded Front Row Motorsports car in 2013, Ragan knows Sunday represents his best shot at a victory while still driving the very fast #18 Gibbs Toyota. He enters this weekend at 20-1 odds for the victory and with really nothing to lose, look for him to try to stay up front all day long. Talladega is known for surprise winners and David Ragan has had this race circled on his calendar for quite some time.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (JW)
With Roush-Fenway Racing looking to make a comeback from a down year, it will be interesting to see how the team and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. perform this weekend at Talladega. With only three Cup races run on the track, Stenhouse has a top 5 (3rd), top 10 (10th) and 13th place finish in the books. Stenhouse had a top 10 finish going for him at the Daytona 500 as well until getting caught up in a wreck on the back straight during the final lap ruined his day. Now two races after his best finish of the season, 4th at Bristol, Stenhouse needs to start now to climb the standings if he is hoping for a shot at the Chase. Closer to dropping out of the top thirty than making the top 16, the time is now for Ricky. Stenhouse is looking for his first Sprint Cup Series win and there is no reason that it couldn’t happen at Talladega.