No driver wants to see this, except in his rear view mirror – but it’s probably inevitable at Talladega Superspeedway. [Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images]
By Dan Margetta and John Wiedemann
It’s time for the lottery known as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Aaron’s 499 Sunday afternoon at the Talladega Superspeedway.
Aaron’s 499 Talladega Superspeedway 500 miles (188 laps) Sunday, May 4 1 pm ET FOX, 12 pm ET
MRN, Sirius XM Ch. 90
The race is literally a lottery as any driver in the starting field has a legitimate shot to pull off the win. The Talladega race is so unpredictable the Las Vegas odds makers don’t have a single driver listed at single digit odds with Dale Earnhardt Jr. as the favorite at 10-1. Last year David Ragan pulled off the upset win coming in at 100-1 odds.
With the new “win and you’re in” Chase attitude of this season, expect drivers to take even more chances is what should prove to be some wild final laps.
Restrictor plate racing returns this Sunday with the Aaron’s 499 at the Talladega Superspeedway and here are some drivers to watch…
Denny Hamlin
Dan Margetta: Listed at 12-1 odds this week, Denny Hamlin should be a force this weekend at Talladega. He dominated the early Daytona Speedweeks events, winning the two of the preliminary races before finishing a strong second in the Daytona 500. Hamlin is also still seeking that elusive first points victory this season. Hamlin hasn’t set the world on fire lately, and he has yet to win at Talladega, but a return to the restrictor plate track could be just what this team needs to vault back to the speed they saw earlier in the year.
Dale Earnhardt Jr
John Wiedemann: Not much surprising news here. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is always on the list at a restrictor plate race. This year’s Daytona 500 winner has been solid all season, a trend that will continue this weekend as Junior aims to pick up his sixth Talladega win. Earnhardt last won at Talladega in 2004 but he finished second in the race at the superspeedway last fall.
Brad Keselowski
DM: Brad Keselowski also had a strong Daytona run earlier in the year, finishing third in the “500” and he’s been fast each week since then. He’s listed at 12-1 odds for Talladega and is definitely fired up coming off his passionate Richmond run last weekend where he battled intensely with Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon. Keselowski also has a pretty good restrictor plate record, having captured his first NASCAR Sprint Cup victory here at Talladega in a surprising upset driving for underfunded team owner James Finch.
Jeff Gordon
JW: When will Jeff Gordon finally capture that first win of the 2014 season? Well, once again it could be this weekend. No one has led more races at Talladega than Gordon who has been at the front of the pack in 34 events, winning six of them. If he continues the trend of this season, Gordon will be at the front again and will be in contention to win the race. Then the caution flag will come out with a short run to the checkers and Gordon will finish in the top-three and leave the track with the points lead but not the trophy. But, he has to end up in victory lane one of these times, right?
Kurt Busch
DM: Kurt Busch has historically been one of the best restrictor plate racers on the circuit without the results to show for it. He has numerous second place finishes on plate tracks, but hasn’t been able to put together a victory. Last year, he ran strong at Talladega before a late race incident sent him on his roof and upside down. He’s listed at 20-1 odds this week in Vegas and shouldn’t be counted out this week as he’s aggressive enough to go when it’s time to move to the front. The aggressiveness can also get him in trouble late however and if he can avoid those misfortunes, Kurt Busch could pick up his long sought-after first restrictor plate victory.
Joey Logano
JW: Joey Logano only led two laps at Daytona and finished eleventh. But right now Logano is the hottest driver out there and sometimes you need to go with the driver on the hot streak. Logano has finished outside of the top 20 in four out of the last five Talladega races. Of course Logano thought that Richmond wasn’t a very good track for him either and look what happened last weekend. With two wins Logano is a lock for the Chase, so he can just let loose and race without consequences – an interesting thing to do at Talladega.
Clint Bowyer
DM: Clint Bowyer is another driver who seems to thrive on the restrictor plate tracks as he has two Talladega wins and he comes into this weekend at 18-1 odds. Bowyer has had some decent runs going this season but has fell victim to mechanical gremlins and bad luck. A lot of those issues have been as the result of some aggressive chassis set-ups as was evidenced last week at Richmond when a camber-related tire issue turned into rather large fire. The good news for Bowyer is at Talladega, there’s not much going on set-up wise as it’s basically turn your car into a missile aerodynamically and let the driver mash the gas. Bowyer’s pretty good at that and he needs a victory to help his team rise from the minor slump they’ve been in.
Jimmie Johnson
JW: I’ve said it before, at the start of the season Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team did not have the setup in the car to dominate like usual. They still seem to be behind a bit, but this weekend is all about speed – and they have that. The two time Talladega winner still is looking for his first victory this season and Talladega is as good as any track for him to grab the win. Of course there still is Kansas and Charlotte on the horizon.
Austin Dillon
DM: Talladega is known for its surprise winners which should sit well with rookie Austin Dillon who comes into the race listed at 50-1 odds in Las Vegas. Dillon sat on the pole in Daytona but didn’t show too much during the race, mostly due to handling issues with the car. Unlike Daytona, Talladega is all about speed and Dillon had plenty of speed at the last restrictor plate event. Fans will never forget the last time Car #3 was at Talladega, as Dale Earnhardt Sr. drove it from 18th to the lead in the closing laps to score his final victory. In addition to its unpredictability, Talladega is also known for its unexplained occurrences and the Racing Gods may shine on the famous #3 on Sunday.
Paul Menard
JW: My choice for a surprise winner is Paul Menard. Whether or not Menard should be considered a surprise is debatable. My reasons for Paul not being a shock to take the win are many. The main fact is that he races for Richard Childress Racing. RCR has been dominant at superspeedways in the past and looked to be returning to those glory years at Speedweeks to kick off the season. Quick note: Ryan Newman is one to watch too. Menard led early in the Daytona 500 and if he can make it through impending carnage at Talladega, he should be in contention in the final laps.